MR BIOLOGY WEBINAR: Predicting future spread

Predicting future spread of myrtle rust in Aotearoa New Zealand

September 2021

Beresford R. 2021. Predicting future spread of myrtle rust in Aotearoa New Zealand. Beyond Myrtle Rust Webinar Series.

ABSTRACT

Myrtle rust is here to stay and continues to spread within Aotearoa, with devastating impacts on some species. It has been recorded in most North Island regions, although is still arriving at new localities within these regions. It is spreading more slowly in the South Island, but has already established further south than initially expected.

Epidemiological concepts developed for other rust pathogens can help us to understand spatio-temporal spread for myrtle rust. Key parameters are wind, host susceptibility, host density and climatic suitability. Join us for this presentation by plant pathologist Rob Beresford where he will examine the dynamics of spread and consider surveillance requirements, early detection in new localities and the use of climatic risk predictions.