RA4 PAPER: Spatial models guide restoration

Using spatial models to identify refugia and guide restoration in response to an invasive plant pathogen

October 2020

McCarthy JK, Wiser SK, Bellingham PJ, Beresford RM, Campbell RE, Turner R, Richardson SJ. 2020. Using spatial models to identify refugia and guide restoration in response to an invasive plant pathogen. Journal of Applied Ecology 58(1): 192-201.

ABSTRACT

To guide management and set priorities for conservation of at-risk species, areas of potential refugia where a Myrtaceae species is predicted to occur outside the pathogen range were identified under two myrtle rust distribution scenarios. Myrtle rust will thrive in New Zealand's warmer regions. Many native Myrtaceae are distributed within this area, but several species occur extensively outside the core range of the disease. Species distributed in cooler southern regions will be best placed to persist in refugia. Myrtaceae species with specific habitat requirements and narrow geographical ranges in warmer (northern) areas are likely to require ex situ or active in situ management. Even widely distributed species will benefit from the restoration of suitable habitat that supports multiple species outside the myrtle rust range. Synthesis and applications. Spatial data can be used to identify refugia and restoration opportunities, and thus inform landscape-level management responses to invasive pathogens. This approach can guide decisions over where to implement in situ (e.g. fungicide spraying) versus ex situ (e.g. seed banking, botanic gardens) management efforts.

KEYWORDS

eucalyptus rust; guava rust; invasive pathogens; Lophomyrtus; Metrosideros; myrtle rust; species distribution models; Syzygium