REPORT: Good biosecurity decisions 1

What is a good decision in biosecurity

October 2022

Newfield M 2022. What is a good decision in biosecurity? Report for NZBH. 25 pp.

ABSTRACT

An initial review of the literature identified three perspectives in decision quality research: normative, prescriptive and descriptive. • The normative approach aims to describe how a theoretical, rational decision-maker should act, taking into account their beliefs and desires. • The prescriptive approach aims to describe how real people should and can make decisions • The descriptive approach aims to describe how real people actually make decisions.

Each perspective offers insights into how decisions could be, should be and are judged. These perspectives often contradict each other. For example, those working with normative models often highlight that decisions cannot be judged on their outcome, because there is an element of chance, and a poor outcome may not necessarily result from a poor decision (e.g. Edwards 1984). However, those who work with descriptive models have shown that outcome is one of the most important factors in how people judge decisions (e.g. Arvai and Froschauer 2010).

This report summarises some of the key insights from the literature review.