Invasive, non-native plants (weeds) are a major driver of declines in biodiversity and also cause economic damage across different land uses. Plant invasions may be exacerbated by other components of global change, but how these drivers will interact is not always clear. To address these problems, greater coordination and a shift toward more proactive approaches are now required. To support better approaches to managing weeds nationally, we undertook a two-year strategic programme to explore potential major changes to Aotearoa New Zealand’s environment and society over the next 30 years and assess how these changes could affect the ecology and management of plant invasions in the future.
What does the future hold for Aotearoa New Zealand (AoNZ) and its biological heritage?
We used a scenario-building approach to explore possible futures for AoNZ, including their potential environmental, policy, economic, and social implications. This approach enabled us to integrate a range of expertise and knowledge across disciplines to consider how current trends and ideas might extend to affect the state of AoNZ in 2050. We chose this 30-year timeframe as distant enough to allow for change, while near enough that current decision-making could influence outcomes. It is also at the far end of most research and management planning horizons. The scenarios we developed can help identify future conservation challenges that decision-makers and managers are likely to face, and direct research programmes to meet these future needs. The approach we used can be easily adapted to develop additional scenarios, particularly as new trends emerge.
Summary of scenario-building approach
We solicited ideas for future scenarios in AoNZ from participants with expertise spanning conservation and biosecurity management and policy, invasive predator control, climate change, economics, social science, forestry, indigenous rights and environmental monitoring. From an initial list of 10 ideas, we selected four scenarios to develop in more detail during a one-day workshop. Following the workshop, we generated detailed written descriptions and summaries of these four scenarios exploring the opportunities and risks of each scenario across four key sectors: environment, policy, economics, and society.
Kevin Collins (Collins Consulting) facilitated the workshop. Workshop participants included Anne-Gaelle Ausseil (Ministry for the Environment), Michael Berardozzi (Ministry for Primary Industries), Brad Case (Auckland University of Technology), Spencer Clubb (Ministry for the Environment), Adam Forbes (Forbes Ecology), Suzie Greenhalgh (Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research), Catherine Kirby (Eco-index), Aisling Rayne (Cawthron Institute), Moana Tuwhare (Mather Solutions), Judy van Rossem (Waikato Regional Council), and Anita Wreford (Lincoln University). Dean Anderson (Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research), Amanda Black (Bioprotection Aotearoa, Lincoln University), and Jean Morton (summer student, University of Canterbury) also provided ideas and feedback on the scenarios.
Using scenarios to prioritise research that supports future weed management
We explored how the changes described in these four scenarios could affect weed invasion, and thus future opportunities and challenges likely to be faced by those who manage weeds. We held a series of online workshops with practitioners from regional councils and territorial authorities, central government agencies, community groups, Māori groups, research advisors, and pest control contractors to collate their perspectives on management challenges and priorities under each scenario, and on research they would find most useful to meet those management needs. We then convened a workshop with researchers working in plant invasion ecology and management from universities, CRIs, and DOC to investigate how each scenario might change invasion dynamics and weed management, incorporate practitioner perspectives, and identify research priorities to help meet these future management needs.
Rowan Sprague (Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research) facilitated the workshop. Workshop participants included Christopher Buddenhagen (AgResearch), Richard Duncan (University of Canberra), Nikki Harcourt (Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research), Philip Hulme (Bioprotection Aotearoa, Lincoln University), Hao Ran Lai (Bioprotection Aotearoa, University of Canterbury), Zohar Marshall (Bioprotection Aotearoa, Lincoln University), Kate McAlpine (Department of Conservation), Fiona Thomson (Department of Conservation), and Billy van Uitregt (Victoria University of Wellington). Amanda Black (Bioprotection Aotearoa, Lincoln University), Ronny Groenteman (Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research) and Christopher McGrannachan (Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research) also provided ideas and feedback.
This provides a roadmap for future-oriented plant invasions research and is an example of how these scenarios could be used to plan research, policy, and management strategies now to meet conservation and management needs in future across a range of issues and disciplines. We encourage local and central government, as well as universities and research institutes, to consider these scenarios to stimulate long-term thinking and planning.
